The holiday spending forecasts are in — and they tell a story every one of us under 40 will recognize. We’re planning to spend more this year, even though money feels tighter than ever.
Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey, published this week, puts a number on it: American shoppers plan to spend an average of $1,654 this holiday season, up 4% from $1,595 last year. Gen Z and millennials are expected to make up a full 50% of that holiday spend. We’re not just participating in the season — we ARE the season.
So the question isn’t whether you’ll spend. It’s whether you’ll enjoy December without dreading January. Let’s look at what the data says, then talk about how to actually pull it off.
What the Surveys Actually Say
Three big surveys landed this month, and together they paint a remarkably consistent picture.
Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey (published Oct 14) found the average planned spend of $1,654, with retail goods spending expected to jump 10% year over year to $988, while holiday activities spending slips 4% to $666. Translation: we’re buying more stuff and doing fewer things. Deloitte also found that 39% of shoppers now use generative AI as their primary tool for at least one holiday shopping task — but only 16% would let it complete a purchase. We’re happy to let the robots find the deals; we’re not letting them spend our money.
ICSC’s 2026 Holiday Intentions Survey (Oct 6) forecasts total holiday retail sales growth of 4.3% to 4.9%, topping $1.7 trillion. Eighty-eight percent of U.S. adults — about 237 million people — plan to buy holiday gifts and related items, and 78% expect to spend the same or more than last year. The top 10% of shoppers anticipate spending five times more than the average consumer.
But here’s the tension underneath: 83% of consumers say they can keep up with their essential expenses, yet nearly half (49%) are concerned about being able to afford holiday gifts, and 50% say their personal or household debt will affect their holiday spending. Concerns about the job market affecting holiday spend rose from 43% to 49% year over year.
Yahoo’s holiday research adds the under-40 detail: 24% of consumers started holiday shopping during the summer — nearly double the 13% who did in 2025 — and the average planned budget rose to $849 from $788 last year. Parents of kids under 18 expect to spend the most at $1,126, with millennial budgets outpacing the norm at $1,044. Black Friday remains the top shopping event at 65%, and 64% of shoppers plan a mix of online and in-store buying.
Adobe’s forecast covers the online piece: a record $275.1 billion in U.S. online holiday spending from November 1 through December 31, up 6.7% year over year. Cyber Week alone — the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday — is expected to drive $47.5 billion, up 7.4%. Electronics ($63.3 billion) and apparel ($51.3 billion) remain the biggest categories.
The bottom line from the data: Americans are determined to celebrate, they’re starting earlier, and they’re spending more — while half of them are quietly worried about whether they can afford it.
The Under-40 Read: We’re Spending the Most and Feeling It the Most
If you’re in your 20s or 30s, these numbers probably hit different. Millennials are budgeting $1,044 on average — nearly $200 more than the overall $849 average. We’re the generation buying gifts for our kids, our partners, our parents, and sometimes our parents’ parents, all while paying the highest rents and grocery bills of our adult lives.
And the job market isn’t helping the mood. Weekly jobless claims came in at 199,000 in mid-October — low by historical standards, but the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 forecast, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Economists are calling it a “low-hire, low-fire” market: nobody’s getting laid off, but nobody’s getting hired either. That means raises are scarce and job-switching — the classic under-40 pay bump — is harder than it’s been in years.
So we have a generation planning to spend $1,654 on the holidays while 49% worry they can’t afford it. That gap between plans and reality is exactly where holiday debt is born.
The Part Nobody Wants to Do: The Math
Here’s where I put on the adviser hat, because this is the number that should change your December.
Bankrate’s national average credit card APR is 19.65% (as of the week of October 7). Let’s say you put the full Deloitte average — $1,654 — on a card at that rate and pay only the 2% minimum each month.
You’d be paying for 176 months — nearly 15 years — and you’d hand over about $3,048 in interest. Your $1,654 holiday season would cost roughly $4,700 by the time it’s paid off.
Read that again. The gifts would be forgotten by February. The payments would follow you until 2041.
Now, nobody reading this site is planning to make only minimum payments on purpose. But that’s the trap: the surveys say 50% of us know debt will affect our holiday spending, and yet the average plan is to spend 4% more. Good intentions don’t survive a season designed to separate you from your budget.
How to Actually Enjoy the Season
The goal isn’t to spend nothing. The goal is to spend an amount you chose, on purpose, and still like yourself in January. Here’s how.
Start now. The 24% of shoppers who started in summer are onto something — and not just because of deals. Spreading $1,654 across four months is $414 a month. Cramming it into December is a crisis. If you haven’t started, start this week: 45% of shoppers begin in early fall, and early fall is right now. Even a $5-a-day challenge started today builds a real holiday fund by December.
Set a per-person cap, not a total. A “$1,500 holiday budget” is abstract and easy to blow. “$75 per person for six people” is a rule you can actually follow in a store. Write the names and the numbers down before you shop.
Separate the season into buckets. Gifts are one bucket. Travel, food, and decor are three others — and they’re where budgets quietly die. Our holiday money plan breaks a $1,500 season into gifts ($450), travel ($600), food ($300), and decor ($150). Steal that structure and adjust the numbers to your life.
Plan the payoff before you buy. If anything goes on a card, decide right now how it gets paid off — which paycheck, how much, by what date. “I’ll figure it out in January” is how $1,654 becomes $4,700. And set your Black Friday budget with the same discipline before the sales start.
Use the calculator below. Plug in your monthly take-home pay and see what a sane holiday number looks like relative to your actual budget.
Try it: split your paycheck
Mistakes to Avoid
Treating "spend the same or more" as a mandate. The surveys report what people plan to do, not what you should do. Ninety percent expecting to spend the same or more is a description of crowd behavior, not financial advice.
Financing gifts at 20%. See the math above. If you can't pay it off by February, the gift was too expensive — full stop.
Forgetting the non-gift spending. Travel, food, hosting, decor, the office gift exchange, the tip for the mail carrier. These routinely add 30–40% on top of the gift budget. Budget them explicitly or they'll budget you.
Letting "deals" set the budget. A 40% discount on something you weren't buying isn't savings. Early shoppers save money when they buy planned items early — not when early shopping becomes an excuse to buy more items.
FAQ
How much should I spend on the holidays?
A common guideline is 1–1.5% of your annual income on gifts, with total holiday spending (travel, food, decor included) staying under what you can pay off by February. On a $60,000 salary, that's roughly $600–$900 for gifts and a total season under $1,500.
When should I start holiday shopping?
Now. Shoppers who start in October or earlier spread the cost, dodge the December price spikes on popular items, and avoid panic buying — which is the most expensive kind of buying.
Is it ever OK to go into debt for the holidays?
Only if it's planned, short-term, and cheap — like a 0% intro-APR offer you'll clear before the promo ends. Carrying gift debt at 19.65% into spring is never worth it, no matter how good the gift was.
What if I've already overspent?
Stop the bleeding first: no more holiday spending until you have a payoff plan. Then attack the balance with the highest rate first, cut one subscription to free up cash flow, and sell one thing you don't need. January-you will thank October-you.
The Bottom Line
The surveys say Americans will spend $1,654 this holiday season — 4% more than last year, with Gen Z and millennials driving half of it. That's fine, as long as it's a choice and not a drift. Pick your number this week, split it into buckets, start early, and plan the payoff before you swipe. The best holiday gift you can give yourself is a January with no debt hangover.